A highly entertaining Divisional Round of the playoffs saw me go 2-2 with my picks. I’ve yet to have a winning week in this postseason having gone 3-3 in the Wild Card Round. The lights are just too bright for some when it comes to the playoffs, clearly! So, my season record now stands at 190-94. And here are my selections for the Conference Championship Games. For the record, I could have easily picked the other way in both games. The stage is set for two competitive showdowns with places in Super Bowl 59 on the line!
Washington Commanders (14-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (16-3)
The Eagles have more wins and the better conference seeding, but I want to start with Washington and their rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, who has been as cool as he has been sensational in these playoffs.
Daniels is something special. He already owns 11 rookie records and still has a chance to break another eight marks before his season is done. The second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft has the chance to become the first rookie quarterback to lead a team to the Super Bowl. And he is the one leading the way. The other five to go 0-5 in Championship Games were all backed up by a top three scoring defense – Washington’s scoring D ranks 18th in the league.
While the Eagles appear to be the stronger and more complete team, Daniels gives Washington more than a puncher’s chance. He threw a career-high five touchdown passes – including a game-winner to Jamison Crowder with six seconds remaining – when these teams met in Week 16. That 36-33 result was Philadelphia’s only loss in their last 15 games.
Jalen Hurts exited that game with a concussion in the first quarter and he will play in this one nursing a sore left knee that he injured against the Los Angeles Rams last Sunday. Will it matter? Hurts has only thrown for 131 yards in the Wild Card round against Green Bay and 128 yards against the Rams. Does he need to be anything more than a game manager?
This is Saquon Barkley’s team. After becoming the eighth player in NFL history to rush for more than 2,000 yards in a regular season, Barkley has taken his totals on the ground to 2,329 yards including the playoffs – third-best in NFL history. Daniels will enjoy some big moments – even against the league’s top-ranked defense and pass defense – but Barkley should be the difference between the teams.
If Washington negate Barkley, the upset could be on. But in two games against the Commanders this season, Philadelphia’s star man has rushed for 296 yards and four touchdowns. He will prove to be the difference, sending the Eagles to the Super Bowl for the second time in three seasons.
Neil’s Pick… Philadelphia Eagles
Buffalo Bills (15-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (16-2)
For the fourth time in the past five seasons, the Bills and Chiefs will meet in the playoffs. And Buffalo have to find a way past the unslayable beast. Three of Buffalo’s previous four seasons have been ended in the postseason by Kansas City.
Josh Allen has won the last four regular season meetings between himself and Patrick Mahomes, but it is Kansas City’s quarterback who has prevailed with those critical playoff wins in the 2020, 2021 and 2023 seasons. So, the Bills are going to need to defeat history and demons, along with the best team in NFL history over the past seven years (106 wins since 2018 and three Super Bowl crowns).
Both quarterbacks have been box office for their teams and you can see why the focus for this game starts there. Since 2018, when Allen entered the NFL and Mahomes became a full-time starter, they top the league in total touchdowns… 262 for Allen and 259 for Mahomes.
But there will be so many factors that decide this game. Coaching is going to be key and while Sean McDermott is brilliant, KC’s Andy Reid is an all-time great. Advantage Chiefs.
Turnovers will also be key. Every team that won in the Divisional Round did not turn the ball over and their opponent outgained them in total yards but lost due to critical mistakes. Buffalo forced three turnovers against Baltimore in the last round, but the Chiefs have not turned the ball over in their last eight games. That has been a massive clean-up after a mistake-prone start to the year. Advantage Chiefs.
One major positive for the Bills is that Allen threw for just 127 yards last weekend, but they still beat a genuine Super Bowl contender in the Ravens. So, this Buffalo team is more complete and capable of winning in different ways, leaning on the ground attack more than in previous years.
That said, the Chiefs just know how to win big games; whether it be through Mahomes to Travis Kelce or via a defense that had eight sacks last weekend. This will be close and Allen could produce enough magic to beat the Chiefs as he did in Buffalo in November. But I’m picking the Chiefs to edge this one and reach the Super Bowl for the fifth time in six seasons.
Some things are just inevitable!
Neil’s Pick… Kansas City Chiefs