Can the Titans cover the spread for just the third time this season?
Peter Dewey | Nov 29, 2024
The Tennessee Titans pulled off a massive upset in Week 12, knocking off CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans to earn their third win of the season.
Tennessee is now 2-4 on the road, pulling off road upsets against the Miami Dolphins and Texans so far in the 2024 season. In Week 13, Will Levis and company will take on Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders, who are 7-5 and in the mix for a playoff spot in the NFC.
Daniels has been great in his rookie season, but Washington’s offense – and team – has taken a step back in the last three weeks. The Commanders have dropped three straight games, losing their grip on the division lead in the NFC East in the process.
Now, after a disastrous loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 12, the Commanders are looking to bounce back as home favorites against Tennessee.
Using the latest odds and analysis, here’s my breakdown of this Week 13 matchup, including a prediction for the final score.
Titans vs. Commanders Odds, Spread and Total
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
- Titans +5.5 (-108)
- Commanders -5.5 (-112)
Moneyline
- Titans:
- Commanders:
Total
- 44.5 (Over -108/Under -112)
Tennessee is a league-worst 2-9 against the spread, but it is 2-4 ATS as a road underdog, winning outright in both games that it covered in. The Titans only have one win in the games that Will Levis has both started and finished this season.
As for the Commanders, they enter this game at 7-4-1 against the spread, going 4-2 ATS when favored at home.
Titans vs. Commanders Final Score Prediction
Earlier this week, SI Betting’s NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan shared in his Road to 272 column – where he picks every game, every week – why he likes the Titans to cover the spread for just the third time this season:
The Commanders are starting to implode and as I predicted last week, it could be due to their offensive coordinator, Kliff Kingsbury. He has a history of his teams starting strong in the first half of the season and then imploding in the second. Now, that struggling offense has to take on a solid Titans defense.
Tennessee is far better than its record indicates, ranking 17th in the league in Net Yards per Play ahead and 12th in that stat over their last three games. Another sign the Commanders are imploding is their 23rd ranking in Net Yards per Play over their last three.
Washington has also slipped to 21st in the NFL in EPA/Play on defense and is now taking on a Titans team that is in the top three in the NFL in yards per play allowed.
There’s always the worry that an awful Will Levis turnover could doom the Titans, but I think 5.5 points is way too many in this matchup.
Final Score Prediction: Commanders 20, Titans 17
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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