chargers lions Lions vs Chargers Prediction: Herbert, Los Angeles Look to Outduel Detroit’s 1-2 Punch out of the Backfield
Entering the 2023 season, the Los Angeles Chargers were counted among the contenders in a loaded AFC, mostly due to a high-scoring offense and fourth-year quarterback Justin Herbert.
A rough start and some inconsistent offensive production, however, have left the Chargers at 4-4 and in need of some quick answers when the 6-2 Detroit Lions visit SoFi Stadium on Sunday for the marquee CBS matchup of Week 10.
Los Angeles has won two straight games (beating the Chicago Bears and New York Jets), but the offense has yet to find its groove.
The Chargers gained just 191 net yards against a strong Jets defense in front of a national audience on Monday Night Football, and Herbert managed just a 65.4 passer rating – his lowest in a game since his rookie season.
The Chargers defense has played well over the last two games (allowing 19 combined points) but will face a much stiffer test this week when the NFC North leaders come to town.
Detroit is coming off a bye week and was last seen beating the Las Vegas Raiders 26-14 in Week 8. The team’s last test against a contender – a 38-6 loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 7 – was likely the focal point of Dan Campbell and the rest of the coaching staff during the bye.
In terms of the point spread, sportsbooks project Detroit as a 3.0-point road favorite in Los Angeles, and this matchup between playoff hopefuls carries an over/under of 48.5 – the highest of NFL Week 10. However, our model views the underdog Chargers as the best bets with a 61.2% chance of winning this showdown.
DET Key: Ride the Running Backs
Through the first six games of this season, Jared Goff was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL. In leading the Lions to a 5-1 start, Goff had a 105.1 passer rating and had 13 completions of 25 yards or more, ranking in the top five of both categories.
Over his last two games, however, Goff has come back down to Earth.
The former No. 1 overall pick had a combined passer rating of 76.9 against the Ravens and Raiders, and he had just one completion of at least 25 yards.
Detroit’s passing game has leaned heavily on chain-mover Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta – especially in recent weeks. St. Brown has 31 receptions in his last three games, which is the most in any three-game stretch in his career.
His 19 targets and 13 receptions against Baltimore in Week 7 were career highs, and the Lions are 3-0 this season when St. Brown scores a touchdown.
The big plays, however, have been few and far between for such a productive receiver. St. Brown’s average depth of target is 7.4 yards downfield, ranking 39th among the 42 wide receivers with at least 50 targets this season.
When the Lions attempt to stretch the field, it has been either second-year receiver Jameson Williams or Josh Reynolds in the crosshairs. While Williams leads the team with an average depth of target of 14.9 yards, Reynolds has been the more productive of the two deep threats.
Average Receiving Yards Per Catch (Min. 1.875 Receptions/Game)
- Rashid Shaheed, New Orleans Saints (19.3)
- Josh Reynolds, Detroit Lions (18.0)
- Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers (17.7)
- Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns (17.6)
- Nico Collins, Houston Texans (17.5)
But with Goff’s pace slowing down and the big plays coming inconsistently in the passing game, Detroit will be encouraged to have its two-headed backfield monster healthy once again.
David Montgomery, who was knocked out of a Week 6 game with a rib injury, is slated to return against the Chargers, but his inclusion in the lineup could once again relegate rookie Jahmyr Gibbs to role-player status.
When Montgomery was healthy to start the season, Gibbs averaged 62.3 scrimmage yards per game in a limited role. In the two games that Montgomery missed, Gibbs averaged 157.5 scrimmage yards per game and scored his first two career touchdowns.
With four carries of 10 rushing yards or more in his last game against the Raiders, Gibbs provides some much-needed explosiveness to the offense.