The Timberwolves are just 4-16 against the spread as home favorites this season.
Peter Dewey | Feb 3, 2025
In this story:
- Sacramento Kings
- Minnesota Timberwolves
The Sacramento Kings have cooled off after a hot start to the new year, and they’ve fallen to the No. 10 seed in the Western Conference entering Monday’s matchup with the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Minnesota (the No. 7 seed in the West) is looking to bounce back from a dreadful loss to the Washington Wizards their last time out.
While this season hasn’t been as great for Minnesota after it finished third in the West last season, the Wolves are still No. 6 in the NBA in defensive rating, which has helped keep them afloat in the chase for a top-six spot in the conference.
Meanwhile, the Kings have much more than just the play-in to worry about. They just traded away De’Aaron Fox in a deal with the San Antonio Spurs, landing Zach LaVine (from Chicago) and a ton of draft capital in the process.
However, it has dropped the Kings’ odds to make the playoffs in the West to +195.
Here’s a look at the latest odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this matchup on Monday night.
Kings vs. Timberwolves Odds, Spread and Total
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
- Kings +4.5 (-105)
- Timberwolves -4.5 (-115)
Moneyline
- Kings: +154
- Timberwolves: -185
Total
- 221.5 (Over -112/Under -108)
Kings vs. Timberwolves How to Watch
- Date: Monday, Feb. 3
- Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
- Venue: Target Center
- How to Watch (TV): Bally Sports North, NBC Sports California
- Kings record: 24-24
- Timberwolves record: 27-22
Kings vs. Timberwolves Injury Reports
Kings Injury Report
- Isaiah Crawford – out
- Colby Jones – out
Timberwolves Injury Report
- Donte DiVincenzo – out
- Anthony Edwards – questionable
- Tristen Newton – out
- Julius Randle – out
- Naz Reid – questionable
Kings vs. Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bets
Sacramento Kings Best NBA Prop Bet
- Malik Monk OVER 7.5 Assists (-110)
With De’Aaron Fox gone, Malik Monk is the de-facto point guard for the Kings going forward, and he’s averaging 5.9 dimes per game this season.
So, why take the OVER? Well, in three games without De’Aaron Fox this season, Monk is averaging 8.7 assists per game, clearing this number twice.
Overall, Monk is averaging over 10 potential assists per game this season, and I expect this to skyrocket now that he’s Sacramento’s lead playmaker.
Minnesota Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet
- Naz Reid UNDER 18.5 Points (-125)
Julius Randle is out tonight, but I think this line for Reid (who is questionable) is an overreaction.
This season, Reid is averaging 13.5 points per game, clearing 18.5 points in just nine of his 48 games. In the one game that Randle has missed already this season, Reid scored just eight points.
I have to go UNDER here with oddsmakers pumping this prop up five points more than Reid’s season average.
Kings vs. Timberwolves Prediction and Pick
One of the best trends in the NBA this season is right under our nose on Monday night.
The Timberwolves – despite a 12-11 win/loss record at home – are an awful 4-16 against the spread as home favorites, the second-worst mark in the NBA for any team that has played at least five games in that spot.
Only the Philadelphia 76ers (1-8 against the spread) have been worse.
While the Kings are just .500 on the season, they’ve played the fifth-most clutch games (games within five points in the final five minutes) in the NBA this season with 26. Sacramento is just 12-14 in those games, but bettors that are taking the points can take solace in the fact that more often than not – the Kings are in the game in the final quarter.
Plus, despite being 10th in the West, the Kings are 12th in the NBA in net rating, just three spots behind the Wolves for this season.
Even without Fox, the Kings still have a solid roster (LaVine likely won’t play tonight) that can hang around in this matchup with Randle out and Reid and Edwards questionable.
I expect Minnesota’s issues covering as a favorite to continue with a formidable opponent in town on Monday night.
Pick: Kings +4.5 (-105)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.