Georgia, one of Euro 2024’s most exciting underdogs, face an extremely difficult Round of 16 test when they take on Spain in Cologne on Sunday.
Spain have arguably been the sharpest team at this summer’s tournament, dominating Group B with three wins from three thanks to five goals scored, while not conceding a single one at the other end.
Even as head coach Luis de la Fuente rang wholesale changes in their group finale against Albania, they still secured a 1-0 victory while controlling the majority of the match.
It will be a massive challenge for Georgia, who stunned Portugal in their group finale to qualify for the knockout stage. They impressed throughout their Group F slate, even in an opening-match defeat to Turkey as they were done in by a pair of absolute stunners from their opponents.
It could be another busy day for Georgia goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili, who is getting global recognition for a fantastic summer tournament following his exceptional season at Valencia.
Spain vs. Georgia prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Spain ($1.18)
- Score prediction: Spain 2-0 Georgia
Spain will consider themselves good for the massively lopsided odds in their favor, but it will be a difficult test for them against a very strong and organized opponent.
La Roja have been great to watch, as they have gained notoriety for shedding their old “tiki-taka” identity for a more exciting stylistic approach. That will put an impressive Georgia side to the test, and if they can withstand Georgia’s tendency for scoring early goals and sitting on them, Spain will be primed to brush them aside and advance to the quarterfinals — but only if they resist underestimating the impressive Euro debutants.
| Unibet (AU) |
|
| Spain win | $1.18 |
| Draw | $7.50 |
| Georgia win | $16 |
| Both teams to score |
Y: $2.40 N: $1.50 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals |
O: $1.64 U: $2.23 |
| Spain to advance |
$1.09 |
| Georgia to advance |
$8 |
Spain vs. Georgia match facts
- Date: Sunday, Jun. 30, 2024
- Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
- Location: RheinEnergieStadion (Cologne, Germany)
- Referee: Francois Letexier (FRA)
- Last meeting: Spain 3-1 Georgia (Sep. 19, 2023 | Euro 2024 qualifying)
Spain vs. Georgia best bet
- Pick: Under 2.5 total goals
- Odds: $2.23 (Unibet)
Spain have been impressive throughout their first three games of the tournament, but they’ll face their toughest defensive test so far as they take on Georgia. It starts with the in-form Giorgi Mamardashvili in goal, who was statistically the best goalkeeper in Europe based on xGOTA-goals conceded differentia. Some models have him second to Monza’s Italian goalkeeper Michele Di Gregorio, but he faced a higher volume of efforts with which to accumulate those numbers.
Beyond Mamardashvili, Georgia have managed to limit their opponents to a high volume of low-value shots on target. They conceded an enormous 71 shots to their three group opponents, but that glutton of chances was limited to just 0.11 xG per effort across the three games. Two of the three goals they conceded to Turkey came on chances worth 0.03 xG, while Patrick Schick’s effort in the Croatia game came via a rebound off the woodwork that fell into his lap a foot from the goal mouth.
Unders have also been strong across the Euros, as 14 of the last 17 matches have seen fewer than three goals scored. Spain should do enough to win, but it won’t come in a barnburner.
Spain vs. Georgia prop bet
- Pick: Spain 20+ total shots
- Odds: $1.81 (Unibet)
One of the tournament’s most high-volume attacks against the tournament’s most high-volume defenses? What could go wrong?
Georgia are extremely good at baiting their opponents into taking a lot of low-value efforts, and Spain may end up falling right into that trap. La Roja have ripped off 20 shots against Italy and 16 against Albania (in a meaningless match for them with backups on the field) over their last two games, and their 11-spot against Croatia was largely thanks to them being up big and not needing to throw numbers forward — nine of those 11 came before the hour mark.
This is shaping up to be a high-volume attacking display from Spain, the question will just be whether Georgia can withstand the pressure, as they largely have throughout the tournament thus far?
Spain vs. Georgia live stream, TV channel
All 41 games of Euro 2024 will be available live and exclusive on Optus Sport.
The platform which already hosts the Premier League also broadcast the last Euros, and is broadcasting the Copa America to Australian viewers.
They have assembled an all-star panel of experts to dissect all the action, including former Serbia international Milos Ninkovic, and former English footballer Michael Bridges.