“If not now, then when?” seems to be the motto of the Buffalo Bills and Bills Mafia entering AFC Championship Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs. After a 13-win season and two more playoff wins added to the portfolio of Josh Allen, Buffalo find themselves standing across from the demon in their dreams for the fourth time in the postseason, hoping to finally exorcise their past failures.
But for Buffalo to finally get pas the Chiefs, it’s their defense that will need to pick up their end of the couch – specifically on third down.
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Bills third-down struggles
The Bills’ defense ranks 29th in EPA per play on third down this season, sandwiched between the Atlanta Falcons and New York Giants. They are also 31st in success rate, ahead of only the Carolina Panthers. And in terms of defensive EPA per dropback on third down, the Bills were the worst team in the NFL this season.
Buffalo cleaned up the third-down issues against the Broncos in the wild card round, holding Denver to 2-of-9. Unfortunately, the Ravens had their way with Buffalo when it came to moving the sticks, going 7-of-10 on third down. Have that type of day against Patrick Mahomes and he’ll kill you with efficiency. The Chiefs were the fifth-best offense on third down in terms of EPA per play and second in success rate in 2024 – they thrive in that situation.
Past playoff losses
This specific issue has been a problem in each of the last two losses to the Chiefs in the playoffs. In the “13 seconds” game, Kansas City went 8-of-13 on third down. Now, in last year’s matchup, third downs weren’t much of a problem – the Chiefs converted on just 20 percent of their third-down tries. However, they only had five third downs in the game because they averaged almost eight yards per play and moved the ball at will against Buffalo’s defense. In the regular season matchup earlier this season, though, the Chiefs were 5-of-10 on third-down.
For the Bills, it’s not about getting every stop, it’s about getting timely stops. If it’s third-and-nine, get off the field. Don’t let Mahomes find Travis Kelce for a gain of 11. We know how Josh Allen plays in these games (eight total touchdowns, zero interceptions in last two playoff matchups). Allen’s numbers in the postseason are actually better than his regular season numbers against the Chiefs, yet the Bills have yet to win one of these postseason matchups – that tells you all you need to know about how the team around him has let him down. This can’t be another Josh Allen masterclass that means nothing when all is said and done. Buffalo’s defense has to hold of their end of the deal to give the Bills a real chance to break through and finally conquer the beast that is the Kansas City Chiefs.