At the top of the Republicans’ 100-day agenda, with President-elect Donald Trump in the White House and a majority of Republican lawmakers, is the plan to renew some $4 trillion in tax cuts that are about to expire.
The US Treasury has published a new analysis of the various ways in which extending the expiring individual and estate tax provisions of Trump’s 2017 tax reform, known as the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, could cost the government, and who would directly benefit most from the permanent extension of the legislation.
For example, the Office of Tax Analysis estimates that the top 0.1% of earners would receive a $314,000 tax cut under a full extension of the individual and estate tax provision> , and the total cost of those tax cuts would amount to $4.2 trillion between 2026 and 2035.
If the tax cuts were only extended to families earning $400,000 or less per year (a promise President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris made on the 2024 campaign trail), that would reduce the cost of extending the expired TCJA provisions to $1.8 trillion, or less than half the cost of extending all individual and estate tax cuts.
A Treasury official said the full analysis aims to give Congress options for the tough decisions ahead, namely how to pay for tax cuts while federal debt soars to more than $36 trillion.
The TCJA, the biggest tax change in a generation, is the hallmark domestic achievement of Trump’s first term and an issue that could define his return to the White House.
Trump is in favor of extending all the provisions that are about to expire, while Republicans have pledged to cut federal spending.
How to pay for tax extensions while meeting the demands of the incoming president will complicate negotiations in Congress.
Who would benefit from Trump’s tax cut plan?
In addition to his plan to extend tax cuts, Trump in the 2024 campaign trail unveiled proposals aimed at working- and middle-class Americans: exempting from income taxes earned tips, Social Security wages and overtime.
Lawmakers are also considering temporarily doubling a cap on $10,000 in state and local tax deductions for most married couples, which the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates would reduce revenue by $170 billion.
Republicans have pledged to reverse the tax credits for energy provided by Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, as well as income tax increases on wealthier Americans.
Most of the TCJA’s changes to the individual tax code are temporary and are scheduled to end in late 2025.
The Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center reported in July that households earning about $450,000 or more would receive more than 45% of the benefits from extending key provisions of the 2017 law.
And the Penn Wharton budget model estimates that permanently extending the TCJA would increase deficits by $4 trillion over the next decade.
Republicans say tax cuts stimulate economic growth as lower taxes generate additional economic activity.
“Many of the provisions in the TCJA were designed to encourage greater economic growth,” said Neil Bradley and Watson McLeish of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in an August report.