Football writer Alex Keble analyses where the weekend fixtures could be won and lost, including:
– Can Man City reset against goal-shy Everton?
– New managers meet at Molineux
– Can Juric steady Southampton’s defence?
– Nottingham Forest’s style spells trouble for Spurs
– Can Fulham end poor record v Chelsea?
– Bournemouth to boost European hopes?
– Newcastle and Villa’s in-form midfields meet
– Will Salah achieve Anfield century?
– Can Brighton get back to winning ways?
– Will in-form Jesus ease loss of Saka?
Goal-shy Everton perfect opponents for Man City?
On first glance this looks like a thorny match for Pep Guardiola: successive 0-0 draws against Arsenal and Chelsea made it five clean sheets in the last six matches for Everton.
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But scoring isn’t Manchester City’s problem. They might have lost nine of their last 12 matches in all competitions (W1 D2), as many as they had in their previous 112, but Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool, Juventus, and Inter Milan are the only teams who have kept a clean sheet against them.
No, the problem has been defending. City have conceded the first goal in nine different Premier League matches this season, and more often than not the opening goal rocks their confidence, particularly as we get deeper into this difficult period for the club.
Everton have only scored 14 goals in the Premier League, the second-fewest to Southampton (11) in the division. They are unlikely to get the opener, which may allow Man City to stay in control, find their rhythm, and eventually take the lead.
Since the start of November, Man City have earned four points, fewer than any other Premier League side. They are in a rut, but that doesn’t mean goal-shy Everton – who are responsible for five of the nine 0-0s we’ve had this season – will be any less defensive.
One goal might do it for Man City. At the Etihad Stadium, where they’ve scored seven goals in their last three matches, they should be able to get the job done.
Will Wolves’ new-manager bounce highlight lack of one at Man Utd?
The impact of new manager Vitor Pereira was instant.
Tactically Wolverhampton Wanderers changed little at Leicester City, but with eight Portuguese players in the starting line-up there was a sense of cohesion and sharpness to the performance, as if rejuvenated by hearing a fresh voice in the dressing-room.
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In other words it was a classic new-manager bounce, which on Boxing Day may accentuate the strange absence of one at Manchester United.
Ruben Amorim has lost three of his first six Premier League matches, winning only seven points in the process, and arguably the 3-0 defeat to AFC Bournemouth was the most disappointing match so far.
The way Bournemouth cut through the United defence was alarming to see, especially ahead of a trip to Molineux where Matheus Cunha (nine goal involvements in his last nine matches) will expect to find joy in the transition.
Victory for Pereira would make him the first Wolves manager to win both of his first two top-flight matches since Sammy Chung in August 1977.
It would also leave Amorim wondering quite why the Wolves players are able to raise their performance levels for a new manager, and his own players are not.
Can Juric make Southampton sturdier?
Former AS Roma, Torino, and Genoa head coach Ivan Juric has been appointed Southampton manager on an 18-month contract and will officially take charge of his first match on Boxing Day.
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It’s a fascinating appointment given that Juric’s preference for defensive discipline is the polar opposite of his predecessor Russell Martin, but it’s a well-timed gamble.
Simon Rusk did away with the Martin philosophy to earn Southampton their first away clean sheet of the season at Fulham last time out.
Saints’ 80 per cent pass completion was their lowest in a league match since Ruben Selles was manager, while their 36 clearances was a season-high and their single possession won in the final third a season-low.
Juric, then, can pick up where Rusk left off, prioritising a low block and making Southampton difficult to beat. He will instruct his players to dig their heels in, stay compact, and minimise risk.
It will be a radical departure from the style of play fans have become accustomed to.
The appointment is also well-timed because on Boxing Day Southampton play the first of three Premier League matches they hope to pick up points from.
They travel to Crystal Palace, who are 16th in the league, and then host Brentford, who have won a paltry one point on their travels, but before that welcome a West Ham United side on Boxing Day with one win in seven on the road.
Southampton’s next three matches
If Southampton can start that sequence with a win, they can put a run together and get back within touching distance of their relegation rivals.
Nottingham Forest will target Spurs’ high line
Nuno Espirito Santo’s Nottingham Forest side are disarmingly straightforward in how they play. They sit back, absorb pressure, and spring forward on the break, relying on set-pieces and crosses to supply Chris Wood.
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It’s exactly the sort of strategy that might trouble Spurs, whose commitment to constant high pressing and attacking in numbers was their undoing again in a 6-3 defeat to Liverpool.
It is easy to imagine Anthony Elanga (who’s scored in each of his last two matches) and Callum Hudson-Odoi being released in behind the Spurs high line when counter-attacking opportunities arise.
In more good news for Forest, Spurs have not been strong defending set-pieces this season. Their Expected Goals (xG) conceded from set-pieces is 6.59, with only Man Utd, Leicester and Southampton conceding more.
Wood will be a major threat.
Can Fulham improve on a dreadful derby record?
The west London derby is rarely an interesting match for the neutral, simply because Fulham have such a poor record in this fixture.
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They have won just two of their 34 Premier League matches against Chelsea (D11 L21), giving them a six per cent win rate, the lowest any team has against any other in Premier League history.
That’s a dismal record to hold against your most bitter rivals, but if any Fulham side was going to break it, it’s this one.
Fulham have shown their stubbornness in consecutive draws with Arsenal and Liverpool, and are now unbeaten in five Premier League matches.
Meanwhile Chelsea’s 0-0 draw at Everton perhaps suggests they are beginning to slow down after an explosive start to life under Enzo Maresca.
There is a small window of opportunity here for a famous Fulham win.
How far can Bournemouth go this winter?
Four victories in their last five Premier League matches has lifted Bournemouth up to fifth, the highest position they have ever been in the top flight this late into a season.
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It could get even better. Victory against Palace, who lost 5-1 to Arsenal at the weekend, could lift Andoni Iraola’s side into the top four prior to their fixtures against Fulham (A) and Everton (H) leading into the FA Cup break.
One step at a time, but there is good reason for fans to start dreaming of European football.
Bournemouth are underperforming compared to their Expected Goals (xG) more than any other team in the division (-7.6), scoring 27 goals from an Expected Goals (xG) of 34.6.
With Justin Kluivert starting to score regularly and Evanilson improving all the time, the Cherries may soon start to progress towards the mean.
Remarkably, they might not have peaked just yet.
Can Kamara and Onana help end Villa’s poor away form?
Aston Villa have lost four of their last five Premier League matches against Newcastle United, including both meetings last season, memorably losing 5-1 at St James’ Park on the opening day.
They have also lost each of their last four Premier League away matches in the Premier League, which perhaps points to Eddie Howe’s side coming out on top.
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But Villa were transformed on Saturday lunchtime by Amadou Onana and Boubacar Kamara starting together in central midfield for the first time. They made nine tackles and committed seven fouls between them against Man City in a commanding display at Villa Park.
Their selection also forced Youri Tielemans into the No 10 position and Morgan Rogers out to the left, with positive results for both, while Jhon Duran got his fourth winning goal of the season.
Duran’s winner v Man City
Youri’s ball through then Morgz and JD did the rest ? pic.twitter.com/7ycaab9Asn
— Aston Villa (@AVFCOfficial) December 21, 2024
In summary it was an almost perfect afternoon, although the same can be said for Newcastle, whose successive 4-0 wins have been partly inspired by Bruno Guimaraes and Sandro Tonali finding form together.
A pair of in-form teams with two elite-level central midfields: this should be a very high-quality encounter with far-reaching consequences in the hunt for UEFA Champions League football.
Will Salah reach 100 Anfield goals on Boxing Day?
Leicester have lost their last two Premier League matches by an aggregate score of 7-0 while Liverpool are unbeaten in 21 in all competitions (W18 D3), their longest run without defeat since November 2021.
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It would be one of the shock results of the season if Ruud van Nistelrooy denied the league leaders, especially with Mohamed Salah in this form.
Salah, who has 26 goal involvements in 16 Premier League matches this season, has scored 99 goals in 141 home games in the Premier League and with a goal at Anfield on Boxing Day, would become the fourth-fastest player to hit triple figures in the Premier League era after Alan Shearer (91 apps), Thierry Henry (113), and Sergio Aguero (125).
Two of those goals were for Chelsea at Stamford Bridge, mind, meaning it will take a Salah hat-trick to make it 100 Premier League goals at Anfield.
Against this Leicester defence, you wouldn’t put it past him.
Matches on 27 December
Can Brighton end their winless run?
The days when Fabian Hurzeler’s side were pushing for top spot feel like a long, long time ago.
Five Premier League matches without victory leaves Brighton & Hove Albion all the way down in ninth, the 1-1 draw with West Ham last time out typical of a developing profligacy in front of goal.
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Brentford at the Amex Stadium offers a great chance to set things right.
Thomas Frank’s Bees have picked up just one point away from home which, unsurprisingly, is the fewest in the Premier League this season.
Only Southampton have faced more shots overall (312) and more shots on target (113) in the Premier League this season than Brentford (309 shots, 112 on target), and their 30 goals conceded from open play is also the league’s worst record.
Brighton supporters will see this as an opportunity for their once-free-scoring attack to click back into gear – and not before time.
It’s been four matches since Joao Pedro or Kaoru Mitoma managed a goal or an assist. That’s got to change sooner or later.
Can Jesus’s form cover for loss of Saka?
Arsenal fans have been hit with the news they have always feared would come: Bukayo Saka has sustained a hamstring injury that will keep him out of action for “many weeks” according to Mikel Arteta.
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Those seeking solace may find it in the form of Gabriel Jesus, who scored five goals against Crystal Palace in the space of four days last week, as many as he had in his previous 45 appearances for the club.
All five goals were expertly taken, too, providing Arsenal with the killer instinct in the penalty area they have so often lacked this season.
Jesus’s first MW17 goal v Palace
Gabby picking up where he left off ❤️ pic.twitter.com/AQ2zwbmpV7
— Arsenal (@Arsenal) December 22, 2024
But can he really make up for Saka’s absence? The 23-year-old has 15 goal involvements in 16 Premier League matches this season, contributing 44 per cent of Arsenal’s total.
Worse, we already know what can happen when the Gunners lose a key player. During Martin Odegaard’s absence Arsenal won only 11 points from seven Premier League matches.