One of the tightest and most intriguing Premier League title races is set for another major twist as league leaders Arsenal visit defending champions Manchester City on (Monday AEDT) in one of the biggest matchups of the season.
The Gunners sit atop the table on goal difference, as they are level on 64 points with Liverpool. City sit just a single point back of those two in third, foreshadowing potentially the closest three-horse title race in a decade.
You have to go back to 2014 for the last time three clubs finished within five points of one another, when Chelsea were leading after 26 matches but faded as Man City and Liverpool overtook them.
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In the 31 seasons since the rebranded Premier League began in 1992, there have been just three such finishes with three clubs within five points atop the table. For even larger context, since the 1981/82 season when victories began to secure three points, only four times has the English top flight season finished with three teams within four points.
Through 28 matches of the current campaign and just 10 more to go, this is the final game left on the Premier League schedule where two of the three title contenders meet on the pitch. Thus, with such narrow margins and high stakes, there is a tension and excitement in the air which promises to spill out onto the pitch.
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Man City vs Arsenal prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean: Draw ($3.80)
- Score prediction: Man City 1-1 Arsenal
Last year, when these clubs met in April with title implications at stake, Man City ran away as 4-1 winners, but this time around feels quite different. There were season-long expectations that Man City would eventually overtake Arsenal, and the Gunners capitulated to the pervasive feeling as they crumbled under the weight of the moment.
Just a week shy of one year later, Arsenal feel a side worthy of the opportunity, while Man City have struggled against top-tier opponents. Not only has Pep Guardiola failed to muster a victory against the other two title contenders this season in three tries so far, he has only managed two wins against ‘Big Six’ opposition, both against struggling rivals Man United. Against Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham, and Chelsea, City have scraped together five draws and a defeat so far, with this game plus one against Spurs, left on the horizon.
The Gunners can get a result, and backing Arsenal on the double chance at $1.94 feels a strong play.
Man City vs Arsenal match facts
- Date: Sunday, Mar. 31, 2024 (Mon, Apr 1 AEDT)
- Kickoff time: 4:30 p.m. local (2:30 a.m. AEDT / 11:30 a.m. ET / 8:30 a.m. PT)
- Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester, England)
- Referee: Anthony Taylor, VAR: Jarred Gillett
- Last meeting: Arsenal 1-0 Man City (Oct. 8, 2023 | Premier League)
Man City vs Arsenal best bet
- Pick: Under 2.5 total goals
- Odds: $2.08 (Unibet)
These high-powered Premier League meetings with title race implications often deliver far more tension than goals, which many have come to expect, so long as Liverpool are not involved.
Last time these two teams met, that’s exactly how it played out, as Arsenal won a cagey matchup 1-0 on a late Gabriel Martinelli winner. That game featured just 16 total shots combined, with only three on target and a total of 0.87 xG collected altogether.
Even City’s two games against high-flying Liverpool finished at 1-1 draws. Arsenal also managed a 1-1 stalemate against Liverpool, before pummeling the third-wheeling Reds 3-1 at home in a famous demolition that feels unlikely against a Guardiola-led club.