Dallas is an impressive 15-4 straight up against teams that are below .500 this season.
Peter Dewey | Jan 31, 2025
In this story:
- Dallas Mavericks
- Detroit Pistons
The Detroit Pistons aim to snap a three-game skid on Friday night when they take on the Luka Doncic-less Dallas Mavericks at Little Caesars Arena.
The Pistons hold the No. 8 seed in the East, but they’ve fallen to one game under .500 after losses to Indiana, Cleveland, and Orlando – three potential playoff teams in the East. If the Pistons want a top play-in spot (the No. 7 or No. 8 seed) they need to turn things around quickly. Detroit has just a 3.5-game lead on the No. 11-seeded Philadelphia 76ers.
On the bright side for Detroit, Dallas has won just four of its last 10 games – struggling since Doncic went down with a calf injury on Christmas. The Mavs (eighth in the West) are four games over .500, but they’re just 12-12 on the road in the 2024-25 campaign.
Oddsmakers have set this matchup as a near pick’em with Detroit entering this matchup as a one-point favorite at home.
Who should bettors wager on to cover the spread?
I have a pick for this game – as well as a few props to consider – on Friday, Jan. 31.
Mavericks vs. Pistons Odds, Spread and Total
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
- Mavs +1 (-115)
- Pistons -1 (-105)
Moneyline
- Mavs: -108
- Pistons: -112
Total
- 229.5 (Over -108/Under -112)
Mavericks vs. Pistons How to Watch
- Date: Friday, Jan. 31
- Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
- Venue: Little Caesars Arena
- How to Watch (TV): Bally Sports Detroit, Bally Sports Southwest
- Mavs record: 26-22
- Pistons record: 23-24
Mavericks vs. Pistons Injury Reports
Mavs Injury Report
- Luka Doncic – out
- Dante Exum – questionable
- Dereck Lively II – out
- Maxi Kleber – out
- Dwight Powell – out
Pistons Injury Report
- Jaden Ivey – out
- Tolu Smith – out
- Daniss Jenkins – out
- Ron Harper Jr. – out
Mavericks vs. Pistons Best NBA Prop Bets
Dallas Mavericks Best NBA Prop Bet
- PJ Washington OVER 16.5 Points (-110)
PJ Washington has been forced to step up on offense with Doncic sidelined, and he’s scored 17 or more points in five straight games, averaging 22.6 points per game during that stretch.
Washington is averaging just 14.2 points per game for the season, but he’s seen his usage increase in January. He’s attempting 14.2 shots per game this month despite averaging 11.7 shots per game for the entire season.
That uptick in usage should be enough to keep Washington in the mix for 17 or more points. Since Doncic went down, PJ has nine games with 17 or more points across 17 contests.
Detroit Pistons Best NBA Prop Bet
- Cade Cunningham UNDER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-166)
Dallas enters tonight’s matchup ranking eighth in the NBA in opponent 3-pointers made per game, and that’s not a good sign for guard Cade Cunningham, who has been slumping from beyond the arc.
Cunningham is shooting just 23.1 percent from 3 over his last seven games, clearing this prop just one time. While the All-Star is shooting 36.0 percent from 3 for the season, he’s attempting fewer 3s per game (5.6) this month than his season average (6.3). That’s going to make it tough for him to pick up three or more made 3s unless he has one of his best shooting games in weeks.
Mavericks vs. Pistons Prediction and Pick
While Dallas has not played well without Doncic, it has won back-to-back games heading into Friday’s matchup.
Overall, the Pistons have struggled when favored at home, going just 2-6 against the spread. On top of that, Detroit is actually lower in the net rating rankings (20th) than Dallas (18th) over its last 10 games.
The Pistons have been a great story this season, but their offense may hold them back in this matchup – as it did against Cleveland and Orlando.
The Mavericks (eighth in offensive rating) have still been able to score the ball at a solid clip without Doncic, and they should have the advantage on that end against a Detroit team that is 19th in offensive rating and just 16th in effective field goal percentage.
The Pistons have also struggled against playoff-caliber teams, going 11-17 against squads that are over .500. Meanwhile, Dallas is 15-4 against below .500 teams in the 2024-25 campaign. I think the Mavs are the team to bet as a road dog.
Pick: Mavericks Moneyline (-108)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.